In May of 2019, Albertans will head to the polls to elect a new government. I believe everyone does indeed project it will be a new government, as the Conservative parties of Alberta are now united to take down Premier Rachel Notley. Currently, the United Conservatives have a fair lead, according to my poll projections (based on 5 different polls conducted over the last 9 weeks.)
IF AN ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY…
Consequently, the United Conservatives would form a majority government, as my seat projections project the following results, based on the 87 seats in the Albertan legislature:
United Conservative – 57
New Democratic – 26
Liberal – 2
Alberta – 2
The Good News for Notley
What’s the good news for Rachel Notley, who seems like she finds herself in an election she can’t win? Well, Albertans are seeing the messages not the messengers. They are seeing a premier who they feel isn’t doing enough for Alberta, and a Conservative leader who they believe will fight for what’s right and fight against the federal government. Why do I say this? Well, according to polls, Kenney’s popularity is nowhere near as high as his party’s. Therefore, a lot of people support him now, as a protest against Notley or because he’s a Conservative, but come election time, if he stumbles or doesn’t connect with people, Notley could have a fighting chance.
The Good News for Kenney
Well, the NDP’s support isn’t spread out well across Alberta. The NDP will likely take every seat in Edmonton. Outside of Edmonton, they could be shut out. The Conservatives have a huge lead throughout the rest of the province, one that looks impossible to make up for Notley. Also working in Kenney and the Conservatives’ favour is dissatisfaction with Trudeau. Voting in a vocal Conservative leader and Trudeau critic would send a strong message to the federal Liberals.
It’s really early, but the NDP are well behind in most of Alberta. They need a major turnaround of epic proportions just to keep the Conservatives from a majority. But major turnarounds always happen in elections. My question is, will the Alberta Party have a breakout? Fielding their first full brigade of candidates, they are polling higher than ever before. A lot will be discovered over the next five months and surely on or before May 31.