Canadian Federal Election: Polls and Projections for July 15, 2019

After a turbulent spring in Canadian politics, we seem to have reset to the normal. Conservatives and Liberals almost in a dead tie, and all other parties lagging well behind.

The Liberals have rebounded from the SNC-Lavalin scandal completely, and the Conservatives have failed to conjure up any long lasting momentum.

Doug Ford’s unpopular Conservative government has undoubtedly played a factor in their downward slide in Ontario, although they have made great gains in Québec and British Columbia.

The Greens made massive gains in the spring, but mainly in areas they were weak in, rather than areas where gains could have been translated to more seats (BC, Atlantic Canada.)

The NDP has struggled massively for any traction, and now sit on the precipice of disaster territory. They would undoubtedly lose all their Québec seats if an election was held today, and would struggle to get any outside of Ontario, where their numbers are still disappointing.

The Bloc Québécois had been gaining steadily since winter, but as of late, that traction has seemed to stall, although they still would have a solid chance of regaining official party status by winning 12 seats.

IF AN ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY…

My projections currently show the following seat count totals for the parties if an election was held today:

Liberal – 153

Conservative – 152

New Democratic – 18

Bloc Québécois- 11

Green – 4

INTERESTING NOTES:

I’m just going to rewind a decade or so here and share this possibility…Conservatives and Liberals well short of a majority, needing the NDP and Bloc Québécois to prop up a potential majority coalition with one of them. The chaos this caused the last time it was possibility will be enough to provoke interest if indeed neither party gets near majority territory.

WHERE IS EVERY PARTY STRONGEST AND WEAKEST?

Liberal – Biggest lead: 35%-23% (Québec), Highest polling: 37% (Ontario), Lowest polling: 20% (Alberta)

Conservative – Biggest lead: 59%-20% (Alberta), Highest polling: 59% (Alberta), Lowest polling: 23% (Québec)

New Democratic – Highest polling: 17% (Prairies), Lowest polling: 9% (Alberta and Québec)

Green – Highest polling: 19% (BC), Lowest polling: 5% (Alberta)

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