Canadian Federal Election: Polls and Projections for August 21, 2019

Following the SNC Lavalin scandal’s overhyped revival, we find ourselves in some familiar ground, the Liberals leading in the seat count but just short of a majority.

The Liberal Party of Canada has seen its big lead in Québec continue, as well as stable leads in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. Further helping the Liberals is the fact that their numbers have gotten better in BC, which could be key if they want to win a majority.

The Conservatives may have overplayed their hand, as it seems Canadians have already made up their minds on the SNC issue. They’re still holding steady, although their deficit in Ontario is troublesome for them.

The New Democrats have made subtle gains, as they try to gain a few swing seats in Ontario and try to cling onto a few Québec seats if possible, but are still struggling to beat the Greens nationally.

The Greens have a mathematical chance of hitting official party status, and will look to do so by gaining further in Atlantic Canada and maybe trying to gain a seat like Pierre-Boucher in Québec.

The Bloc Québécois have hit a bit of a lull after gaining following the acclamation of leader Yves-Francois Blanchet, but still have a very solid chance of regaining official party status.

IF AN ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY…

My projections currently show the following seat count totals for the parties if an election was held today:

Liberal – 157

Conservative – 139

New Democratic – 23

Bloc Québécois- 12

Green – 7

Regional Breakdown

Leader’s seats and other interesting races

We won’t look at the safe leaders’ seats (Trudeau’s, Scheer’s, and May’s) but we will look at Singh’s, Bernier’s and Blanchet’s as well as JWR and some other interesting ridings to watch

Jagmeet Singh – Burnaby South

Liberal 30.4%

New Democratic 28.6%

Conservative 26.3%

People’s 6.6%

Green 6.2%

Yves-Francois Blanchet – Beloeil-Chambly

Bloc Québécois 32.5%

Liberal 29.6%

New Democratic 13.8%

Conservative 12.6%

Green 10%

Maxime Bernier – Beauce

Conservative 36.1%

People’s 34.2%

Liberal 16.7%

Bloc Québécois 6.2%

Green 3.6%

New Democratic 2.9%

Jody Wilson-Raybould – Vancouver-Granville

Liberal 35.3%

Jody Wilson-Raybould 28.6%

Conservative 17.4%

New Democratic 8.6%

Green 7.1%

People’s 1.7%

Other interesting races to watch:

Pierre-Boucher-Patriotes-Verchères – LPC 28, BQ 27.1, GPC 26.5

Malpeque – LPC 40.9, GPC 35.6

Mount RoyalCPC 47.4, LPC 46.7

Courtenay-AlberniCPC 27.4, GPC 25.7, NDP 25.6, LPC 19.5