Amidst the coronavirus outbreak, I, like many others, find myself in self-isolation. And when in self-isolation, when new(ish) polls are available, seat count updates seem to be in order.
We start in Québec, where Francois Legault’s well-received response to the coronavirus pandemic has led to him strengthening his lead, as 85% of Québecers approve of his handling of the crisis.
QUÉBEC POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION: CAQ well ahead of chasing pack
The Coalition Avenir Québec are at 42% currently, an improvement on their 2018 majority performance, and benefit from a further downfall of the Parti Libéral Québec, in the midst of a newly postponed leadership campaign that has failed to capture any imaginations. The Parti Québécois is holding steady, as comedian Guy Nantel has overtaken 5-term Jonquière MNA Sylvain Gaudreault as the frontrunner for leader. However, as most of their potential gains are CAQ seats, they need a dramatic shift in opinion to do much more than salvage official party status (which in itself is still an uphill battle at this moment in time). Meanwhile, Québec Solidaire, off of their breakthrough performance in 2018, have seen some bad press and strange stances put into jeopardy many newly gained seats, such as that of Émilise Lessard-Therien, who now finds herself behind in Rouyn-Noranda.
SEAT COUNT PROJECTION
Coalition Avenir Québec – 82
Parti Libéral Québec – 26
Parti Québécois – 9
Québec Solidaire – 8
Per this projection, the CAQ holds a safe and strengthened majority, with the PQ and QS once again short of official party status.
Now, in Alberta, similar to Québec, the reality hasn’t changed: governing party holds on to a strong majority. However, the UCP of Jason Kenney have indeed lost some ground, and seats, to Rachel Notley’s NDP.
ALBERTA POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION: UCP Lead slims, as AIP picks up steam
The UCP holds a slim lead over the NDP, with the newly reignited Alberta Independence Party in third place. The struggling Alberta Party is in fourth place. Jason Kenney’s hopes in future elections will likely be dependent on that Alberta Independence Party number, as those are almost certainly not NDP voters moving over.
SEAT COUNT PROJECTION
United Conservative Party – 51
New Democratic Party – 36
Others – 0
Though the UCP would still certainly have excellent chances of another majority if an election were held today, the election is not today, and these numbers should worry Jason Kenney. An AIP with no leader, no organization, and no real time to fully capitalize on anti-Trudeau sentiment in the wake of his 2019 election win, have already closed in on relevancy again. Should their vote intention begin to get closer to the % of Albertans who have supported independence in recent polls, the UCP will be hard pressed to form government again.